Estimates of the proportion of soil carbon emitted in the event of deforestation range from 25 % (Guo and Gifford 2002; Busch et al. 2009) to 40 % (Kindermann et al. 2008). We did not account for any carbon removals or additions associated with subsequent agricultural cover. It has been estimated that approximately 12 million ha have been deforested per year in the period 1990–2005, mostly in developing countries (Food and Agriculture buy Y-27632 Organisation 2006). Therefore, deforestation of 12 million ha was adopted in this study as a “business as usual” (BAU) scenario for annual deforestation through 2050. These estimates do not include

land-cover change outside forests, or reforestation and afforestation. To reflect the uncertainties involved, and given that our analysis covers conversion of any natural MI-503 manufacturer landscape, not just forested land, we also ran two alternative BAU scenarios, with 50 % more (i.e. 18 million

ha per year—“high BAU”) and 50 % less (6 million ha per year—“low BAU”) annual deforestation. Our scenarios assume deforestation would occur in Latin America (including the Caribbean), sub-Saharan Africa and South, East and South East Asia (including countries from Oceania). The geographic distribution of agricultural expansion was estimated using our likelihood of conversion map (Fig. 2), on the assumption that those areas characterised by the highest likelihood of conversion are being converted first. Once a grid cell was selected to be converted, the fraction of

the grid cell converted within the BAU scenario corresponded to the predicted conversion (fraction of grid cell) for the year 2050. In the High BAU scenario, the amount converted per grid cell was increased by 50 % in relation to the BAU scenario. Fig. 2 Likelihood Baricitinib of land-cover change until 2050. Likelihood that a cell will experience at least 10 % of further conversion by the year 2050. Different colour scales are applied for forests and non-forest areas. Deserts and Annex-I countries (not developing countries) are shaded grey Lastly, we ran two further scenarios that incorporate the implementation of the REDD element of a REDD + scheme. The first scenario assumed that REDD is 100 % effective (no further conversion in forested grid cells), the second that REDD is 50 % effective (conversion in forested grid cells is 50 % of that grid cell’s BAU conversion). Using these scenarios, we investigated land-cover change-associated emissions in non-forest lands, if no other measures to decrease land demand are implemented. Results Selection of explanatory variables During the selection of explanatory variables by the model describing land cover, GDP per capita as a proxy for consumption patterns was found to have a worse fit than calorific intake per capita (selected by the model). PA status was also found not to be significant (P > 0.05).