It is particularly important to identify these VSAs when modeling contaminants that are disproportionately transported in overland flow, such as P. Further, the model correctly identified dry locations and periods, indicating the model’s ability to reflect HSMs and potential runoff source area variability. This has important implications

for management as it indicates that this approach could be implemented as a real-time, spatiotemporally dynamic runoff risk tool at the sub-basin and sub-field scale (similar to Dahlke et al., 2013). This would contrast with other real-time watershed tools, such as the Wisconsin Manure Management Advisory System, that advise users of risks on a watershed-wide basis (DATCP, 2013). These prediction tools would be most useful in the context of trying

to minimize phosphorus Protease Inhibitor Library or sediment losses in runoff. It is instructive to look at the two watersheds where model performance was the worst, Neshanic River and Town Brook watersheds, as it allows us to use the model as a hypothesis testing tool. Both of these watersheds are small and have no internal rain gauges and, thus, the amount of rain we are assuming is occurring in the watershed may be incorrect. Fuka et al. (2013a) demonstrate that when a weather gauge is greater than 10 km from Volasertib a small basin, even a short term weather Fossariinae forecast may result in better model performance relative to using the weather station. In particular, the Neshanic River streamflow

response was poorly modeled and this could also indicate that some of our underlying assumptions about runoff processes in this watershed are incorrect, i.e., infiltration excess runoff could have a larger impact in this basin because of its relatively large urban footprint. In the Town Brook site, there were a number of instances when we incorrectly categorized wells during runoff events. Interestingly, each well was mis-categorized at least once in the 18 runoff events. This is instructive, because it suggests that we are not so much mis-categorizing some wells entirely (which would be caused by an inaccurate STI), but instead that the water table dynamics are more variable than we are able to capture with this simple model. This is consistent with findings from Harpold et al. (2010) who, using an end-member mixing analysis, determined that lateral preferential flow paths were redistributing water beyond what is predicted by VSA models. One limitation of this semi-distributed model is that the static nature of the STI classifications does not allow us to distinguish between upland wet sites and the lowland sites directly contributing to tributaries. We expect upland areas to show a much flashier response to precipitation inputs than lowland areas when their STI values are similar.